A Winning Investment Strategy - Seeking Alpha

We all want to succeed in everything that we do, including investing in the stock market. Though I have no analytical data to back it up, I am convinced that most people will lose money in the stock market over their lifetime. So why do so few people succeed at investing? Could it be that an individual's desire to succeed is a significant reason for their failure.

Don't Panic: Survival Guide To Prospering With Mortgage REIT 12% Yields - Seeking Alpha

Mortgage REITs have suffered some weakness in recent weeks, with the sector falling about 5% from early-April peaks and some popular stocks like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Western Asset Mortgage Capital (WMC) falling 10-12% within a few trading days in May. This while the S&P 500 has been screaming higher. The sector stabilized at the end of last week but investors are concerned. Several formerly bullish analysts like the one quoted above urged caution.

Rising Treasury Yields: QE Tapering Or Real Selling? - Seeking Alpha

Bond yields are rising again. This week we saw the 30 year U.S. Treasury bond close at 3.17%, which does not seem like a particularly important or even dangerous number. In the grand scheme of things it isn't. But it is a very bearish number on a weekly basis looking at a chart of the yield when we look at it within the context of the monthly chart. Rising bond yields could be the work of the Fed or it could be strategic selling, now that the U.S. economy looks like it is in worse shape than what was expected earlier in the year.

The Diminished Case for Chinese Yuan Appreciation - Seeking Alpha

The Chinese yuan has appreciated by more than 27.5% since 2005, when the People's Bank of China (PBOC) formally acceded to international pressure and began to relax the yuan-dollar peg. For China-watchers and economists, that the Yuan will continue to appreciate is thus a given. There is no question of if, but rather of when and to what extent. But what if the prevailing wisdom is wrong? What if the yuan is now fairly valued, and economic fundamentals no longer necessitate a further rise?

6 Lessons Learned From Up And Down Markets - Seeking Alpha

One of the fortunate things about getting older and having invested for several decades is I have lived through a lot of market cycles. Up markets, down markets, crashes, bubbles and go nowhere markets, I have been invested through all of them. Every one of those market cycles provided a lesson, sometimes a painful lesson, but a lesson nonetheless.

Evaluating Southern Copper's Intrinsic Value - Seeking Alpha

The most critical component of any investment framework rests on determining what a company is worth. There are many ways to do so, but there is only one way that is most appropriate, and that's discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Think of it this way: do you want your pay check paid in cash? Or do you want it paid in accounting earnings? We think you know the correct answer -- cash, please. And while the DCF process is not perfect, it's the best approach out there and doesn't suffer from the many pitfalls of using multiple analysis, residual income models, and the dividend-discount analysis. Don't get us wrong, investors should use a variety of triangulation tools, but let's dig into what Southern Copper (SCCO) is worth on the basis of its future free cash flow stream.

What To Buy And Sell In Your High-Yield Portfolio - Seeking Alpha

I continue to target a high-yield investment strategy, which I will summarize as "get paid early and often through yield" and "do not plan for share-price appreciation". A comprehensive description is in this series of Seeking Alpha articles. As a reminder, this strategy does NOT consider capital appreciation as a core part of your return; it is an income-oriented return strategy. A few readers have suggested that I provide an update with some possible actions and next steps, which is the genesis of this article.

Evaluating EV Energy's Lofty Distribution - Seeking Alpha

EV Energy's (EVEP) yield is excellent, offering just under a 8% annual payout at recent price levels. We prefer yields above 3% and don't include firms with yields below 2% in our dividend growth portfolio. EV Energy fits our criteria thus far, but what about the future growth and safety of its distribution? Let's take a look in this article.

4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis - Seeking Alpha

It may not happen next week, but it will happen. It appears that Japan is on an unstoppable path to financial Armageddon.

Over the past 20+ years, the Japanese economy has unwound the excesses caused by a giant property and financial bubble. At the same time, the country's aging demographics has increased social costs while the pool of taxable labor declined. Consequently, Japan has stagnated and repeatedly dipped into deflation.

This spring, the Bank of Japan (BofJ) announced insanely aggressive monetary expansion to finally break the deflationary curse by targeting a 2% inflation rate within 2 years. Unfortunately, I believe this policy move simply shortens the time until Japan meets its fate.

Precious Metal Royalties: The New Landscape - Seeking Alpha

In today's challenging finance environment, some miners are looking to royalty companies to fill the funding void. Royalty sales give the junior mining company capital to explore or build a mine in exchange for a percentage of future production. It is a win-win. Investors have exposure to gold profits, but are immune to much of the risk. Juniors get the money they need to move forward. But not all royalties are the same and a number of new types have entered the market to fill specific investing and funding niches. In this special primer from The Gold Report, we survey the heads of the companies to explain the role they see themselves playing in investment portfolios and the future of mining.

Sprott's John Embry: 'The Future For Retirees In America Is Grim' - Seeking Alpha

Once again, we have the great pleasure and honor to have with us John Embry, Chief investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management.

John Embry joined Sprott Asset Management LP as a Chief Strategist in March 2003. He plays an instrumental role in developing the corporate and the investment policy of the firm. John, an industry expert in precious metals, has studied the gold sector for over 30 years and has accumulated industry experience as a powerful portfolio management specialist since 1963. The following is a transcript of an interview that took place last week.

True All-In Costs Of Production: Complete Gold Industry List - Seeking Alpha

In an earlier article, we discussed one of the most important metrics to analyze the gold industry, the actual cost of mining an ounce of gold, which can help an investor figure out whether it is time to buy GLD and/or the gold miners. In that analysis, we used the FY2012 financials to calculate the combined results of publicly traded gold companies and come up with a true all-in industry average cost of production to mine each ounce of gold.

Has Natural Gas Finally Hit Bottom? - Seeking Alpha

If you think the stock market clobbered investors in 2008, you can take some solace in knowing that it could have been worse elsewhere. If you had invested in natural gas back in 2008 when it traded at about $13 per thousand cubic feet [McF], you have either sold it in frustration or are an extremely patient investor. Five years later natural gas is trading at just over $4 per McF. Could we be nearing a bottom though? We are likely in the early innings of a long baseball game where natural gas had dipped below $2 per Mcf last spring and certainly has room to run higher in the years to come.

Humble Student of the Markets: A Dalio explanation of Evan-Pritchard's dilemma

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had an article in The Telegraph on the weekend lamenting that the world remains in a long slump five years (see Five years on, the Great Recession is turning into a life sentence). The article is a good summary of what has happened since the Subprime Crisis of 2007 and what might be possible:

Homeownership May Actually Cause Unemployment - NYTimes.com

Homeownership is a good thing, for the individual and for society. Or so American governments, whether Republican or Democrat, have long believed. The benefits have been cited repeatedly in justifying the existence and expansion of the tax breaks given to home buyers.

But maybe it isn’t nearly as good as had been thought.

A new study by two economists concludes that rising levels of homeownership in a state “are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state.” As more homes are owned, in other words, fewer people have jobs.

Sandstorm CEO Nolan Watson's Exclusive Interview For Seeking Alpha - Seeking Alpha

Sandstorm Gold (SAND) has had a banner year, growing to a $1 billion market cap and up 90% year to date. Having covered the stock since June of 2011, it has been amazing to watch them go from a speculative company on the Canadian Venture Exchange to listing on the NYSE and being featured on the Jim Cramer show over the short span of 18 months. Life is a wild ride.

Being located in the same city as SAND's head office, I reached out to SAND's CEO Nolan Watson to request an interview. He was gracious enough to grant me his time on behalf of the readers of Seeking Alpha, during which we discussed a wide variety of topics including his charity Nations Cry, recent national events in Canada, the outlook for the mining industry and, of course, Sandstorm Gold and Sandstorm Metals and Energy.

What Seeking Alpha readers will find of particular interest is Nolan's take on the dynamics of the industry and the future for Sandstorm Metals and Energy (STTYF.PK), the lesser known of Nolan's two companies that has exciting growth potential (article to come once stock is over the $1 per share price as per Seeking Alpha rules).

‘Full Speed Ahead!’ on Wall Street — Rick's Picks

Permabears who have waited patiently for The Mother of All Corrections should take encouragement from the blithe demeanor of yesterday’s 87-point rally in the Dow. It left the Indoos sitting above 15,000 for the first time and the network anchors oohing and aahing as though they understood what it means. Our take is that the little guy has not only returned, but that he is ready to party. And what better signal could there be that the end is nigh?  With yields on fixed-incomes at historical lows, there was nowhere else to go for the mullet-topped investor with a small wad of cash. 

Gold And Silver Royalty Companies Part 5: Smaller Royalty Companies - Seeking Alpha

This is the fifth in a series of articles dealing with gold and silver royalty and streaming companies. In part 1 I introduced the reader to the business model employed by gold and silver royalty and streaming companies. These companies make deals with mining companies whereby they give mining companies an upfront payment in cash or stock in exchange for a royalty or a stream on an agreed upon mine. A royaltyagreement entitles the royalty company to a predetermined portion of the resources produced by the mine in question, while the mining company operates the mine. A stream entitles the streaming company to the right to purchase a predetermined portion of the resources produced by the mining company at an agreed upon price. In general royalty and streaming companies offer investors exposure to the mining industry with lower risk than if they were to purchase mining shares.

Short-Duration Bond ETFs | ETF Trends

The Securities and Exchange Commission is “actively” working on balanced reforms to address risks in the $2.6 trillion money market fund industry, which could push investors to ultra-short-duration bond ETFs as a viable alternative.

“The staff and Commissioners are actively engaged in discussions designed to yield an appropriate and balanced proposal in the near future,” SEC Chairman Mary Jo White said Friday.

However, White stopped short of fully detailing proposals on the table.

Are 6% Yields in Preferred Stock ETFs Worth the Risks? | ETF Trends

ETFs tracking preferred shares such as iShares U.S. Preferred Stock (NYSEArca: PFF) were in focus Monday after a weekend story from Barron’s warned the funds could get hit by rising interest rates.

Preferred stock ETFs have been popular with investors looking for yield and stability in a low-rate environment for bonds.

Slovenia Falls From Economic Grace, Struggling to Avert a Bailout - NYTimes.com

The recent bailout of Cyprus at a cost of €10 billion, or $13 billion, which included stringent conditions forcing losses on bank depositors, has focused minds in Ljubljana, the Slovenian capital. Slovenia’s struggling banking sector is saddled with about €6.8 billion worth of nonperforming loans, about one-fifth of the national economy. Slovenia is now in recession, and the gloom across the euro zone shows little sign of abating. A European Commission forecast released Friday said that France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands — four of the five largest euro zone economies — will be in recession through 2013.

The ABCs Of An mREIT And Its 15% Dividend Yield - Seeking Alpha

American Capital Agency Corp (AGNC) is a high dividend yielding mREIT. Over the last couple of years REITs in general have become somewhat of a fad among segments knowledgeable investors.

This article is aimed at both novices and seasoned investors alike who are interested in taking a small step back from all the abbreviations and general technical nonsense in order to consider some of the following basic questions. What does AGNC actually do? How does this lead to their double digit dividend? What risk factors do they face going forward (in particular in light of the recent earnings miss and price drop)? Finally after considering these basic questions, we will be in position to give a recommendation regarding investing in AGNC, again in particular in light of the recent earnings miss.

Beware of those who cry 'bubble' about bonds

If you were strolling through London in the mid-19th century, the odds were good that someone would grab your hat and shout, "What a shocking bad hat!" This would be followed by general merriment and the loss of your hat. It was an Internet meme before there was an Internet.

Estate Planning Under the New Tax Law - NYTimes.com

WITH the federal tax on estates now kicking in at $5.25 million — or $10.5 million for a couple — it may seem that only the very wealthy need to worry about paying the tax. But that doesn’t mean that everyone else can forget about an estate plan.

Thoughts on Bubbles and the Slippery Slope?

In many ways, 2013 has started off like 2012. Long term Treasury bond rates started 2012 at 2.9% and spiked to 3.5% by April 19. That was the peak and they finished the year practically unchanged. We began this year with the yield at 2.95% and by April 11 they hit 3.28%. Rates have already tumbled to 2.84%. The S&P500 rose 12% in Q1 2012, peaking on April 2 and making practically no progress for the rest of the year. This year the S&P 500 rose 10% in Q1 and peaked (so far) on April 11. At this time last year my most important question from an investment standpoint was: Is the back up in rates a mere correction or a slippery slope? Is the almost unanimous opinion that the Great Bull Market in Bonds is over correct? A secondary (and closely related) question was: What is the outlook for the economy and the stock market? Apparently, no matter how much things change, the questions remain the same.

American Capital Agency Corp.'s Earnings Disaster - A Warning Of Things To Come? - Seeking Alpha

The horrific drop in earnings comes almost entirely from unrealized losses in mark-to-market value of mortgages held. Realized losses ($.55 per share) and losses on dollar roll positions ($0.15 per share) were significant as well. Gary Kain, president and chief investment officer, explained this as a reaction to expectations of an early end to QE3.

Currencies, Precious Metals And A Dark Future: Sprott's Rick Rule Weighs In - Seeking Alpha

I recently had the opportunity to interview Rick Rule, President of Sprott Asset Management USA, Inc. Our conversation ranged over currencies, social promises, precious metals and mining stocks.

I asked Mr. Rule about where he thought the value of the US dollar was heading. In the near term, he said, "I think the dollar's going to be strong…I've jokingly said, It's the worst currency in the world, except for all of the others." He stressed that the US dollar is still the world's reserve currency and it is the most liquid currency, which, in the short term, should help it retain its value against other currencies.

Sell In May? - Seeking Alpha

As we approach the end of April, the inevitable question of seasonality arises. Is it time to sell in May and go away?

While many of my intermediate and long-term technical indicators are starting to line up, indicating that it may be prudent to start selling now, I am not seeing the bearish trigger yet. To review, let's consider the charts from the three major regions of the world, U.S., Europe and China.

U.S. LNG Exports - No Cause For Alarm - Seeking Alpha

The debate over unfettered U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has intensified in recent months, with exploration and production companies pushing for a new demand outlet and gas-intensive industries seeking to curb these shipments.

U.S. oil and gas producers have long coveted LNG exports as a potential release valve for the domestic oversupply of natural gas, a product of the industry's aggressive drilling in the Marcellus Shale and other prolific unconventional resource plays.

Physical Gold Vs. Paper Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect - Seeking Alpha

How can we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?

Here are some of the factors:

• George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF (GLD) by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2012.
• He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about 12.2% at present.
• On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some members were discussing slowing the Fed's $85 billion per month buying of Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought before, the "printing" may not cause as much dollar debasement.
• On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its target price. It even recommended getting out of gold.
• COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year (much more on this technical point below).
• The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators and trend followers.
• Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million euros' worth of its gold to cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell, the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers, rather than flood the physical markets.

My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market.

The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage - Seeking Alpha

Just when you've finally gotten over the stock market crash from four years ago, there's a new threat that could potentially hit your portfolio. Even worse, it's in an area that many people think of as being safer than stocks: the bond market.

We're on a collision course with the worst bond market collapse in decades and the warning signs are as clear as day. There's still time to dodge the damage - and even to profit - if you know what to look for.

But the time to make your move is now…

Here's How To Tell When To Move Back Into Gold | StreetAuthority

Gold has officially entered a bear market with a 20% drop from its peak in 2011. Exchanges recently halted trading to decrease intraday volatility.

The chorus of bears has grown just as loud as the holdout bulls, who point to massive easy-money programs. The range of possibilities is astounding.

The one certainty is that no one knows where gold's price will go. So what can you do to establish an outlook and a fair value for something that can cause such a speculative craze?

When the market panics and investors rush for the exits, you have to have a calm assessment of value. Looking at long-term supply and demand can help you put a floor on any asset and develop a trading strategy.

Billionaire Noam Gottesman's Long-Term, High-Dividend Picks - Seeking Alpha

Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers alum Noam Gottesman co-founded GLG Partners in 1995, and his fund has since grown to become one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Our interests in his holdings span multiple parameters, including holding period, new activity, market cap, and dividend yield. Our research has shown that hedge funds' small cap stock picks outperform the market by 18 percentage points per year (learn more about the strategy here). Their long-term holdings in this strategy perform even better. We take a particularly keen interest in companies that have remained in billionaire Gottesman's portfolio for the long term. Read on to see our take on five of the highest yielding stocks that have stayed in GLG's favor for a year or longer.

Boom Times in Paraguay Leave Many Behind - NYTimes.com

Walk into the headquarters of the central bank of Paraguay, a sprawling seven-story structure surrounded by flowering silk floss trees, and the message is clear: officials proudly display charts showing a dizzying economic boom, with growth reaching 13 percent this year, making Paraguay the fastest-growing country in the Americas.

CASSHing Out - Seeking Alpha

In late 2011, I introduced the concept of investing in the CASSH countries – Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong. These smaller, developed countries exited the financial crisis with less debt and healthier labor markets than their larger developed counterparts, and looked relatively cheap, trading at or below the average valuation of other developed markets.

Optimism Dims for U.S. Middle Class - NYTimes.com

The researchers made a striking finding: The U.S. middle class, long the world’s embodiment of optimism and upward mobility, today is telling a very different story. The chief preoccupation of middle-class Americans is not the dream of getting ahead, it is the fear of falling behind.

Southern Europe’s Recession Threatens to Spread North - NYTimes.com

No company symbolizes German industrial might like Daimler, the giant maker of Mercedes-Benz autos and trucks. So when the company said this week that it, too, had finally been caught in the downdraft of the European economic crisis, it was an ominous sign for all of the Continent, if not the whole world.

The S&P's Most Bearish Indicator Is Flashing Red | StreetAuthority

From moving averages and Bollinger Bands to the "golden cross," the market is littered with technical indicators. 

But there is one indicator that stands alone in its accuracy and bearishness.

This indicator has been an incredible predictor of weakness in the market, flashing bright red warning signals before the market crashes of 1987 and 2008.

And right now, it is warning that trouble lies ahead for the S&P 500.

The Hindenburg Omen is widely considered to be the most bearish technical indicator in the entire market. Named for the iconic zeppelin crash, this indicator is a combination of technical factors that measure the health of the New York Stock Exchange.

What Happens When Liquidity Disappears? - Seeking Alpha

The recent mini flash crash precipitated by a bogus Tweet that an explosion had occurred at the White House should give both traders and investors pause and for obvious reasons. What happens when market liquidity dries up? Let me show you.

Sandstorm Gold: Finally A Buy - Seeking Alpha

Sandstorm Gold (SAND) is a gold streaming company. They provide up-front capital to mining companies in exchange for a gold streaming agreement. This agreement gives Sandstorm the right to purchase a percentage of the life of mine gold produced, at a fixed and typically discounted price. Sandstorm Gold portrays itself as a non-operating gold miner. Alternatively, Sandstorm Gold can be viewed as a highly specialized venture capital provider for gold miners.

Gold And Silver As A Macro Sign Post - Seeking Alpha

The last week has been a fright fest for the gold "community". But these are the financial markets, not a community. There is a world outside of whatever is going on in gold and silver. A macro economic backdrop filled with entwined and correlated assets and markets all trying to form a message when taken as a whole.

Sure, gold - as a monetary metal - is a big one when it comes to macro indications, but what is really important is the great question that has been ping-ponged about for many years now between intellectuals on either side of the debate; inflation or deflation?

Gold And Currency Outlook - Seeking Alpha

Anyone who has ever had a brick fall on one’s feet knows how much it can hurt. It’s little consolation if that brick is made of gold. What’s happening to the price of gold? And has our outlook changed, be that for gold, the U.S. dollar or currencies more broadly?

How Tightly Wound Is Gold Price's Coiled Spring? - Seeking Alpha

It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets. Their short-term view of generating a trading profit is in stark contrast to the views of long term investors in gold, as evidenced by the massive wave of physical gold buying that began over the weekend and accelerated following Monday's further decline. The surge in gold purchases is spanning markets from India and China to the US, Japan and Europe. Buyers are viewing this as an opportunity to purchase gold at prices not seen in the past couple of years.

Deflation Coming For Stocks (And Dividend Stocks) Too? - Seeking Alpha

The hyperinflationary paradigm that helped propel gold prices to near $2,000 per oz. has been shaken to its foundations as gold prices crashed over the last few days.

On the surface it was a no brainer: The Fed prints money, inflation turns to hyperinflation, the dollar collapses and those holding gold are the new rich.

The problem with this construct is the fact that when the central bank engages in monetary easing, the newly "printed" money goes to the money center banks. The vast majority of these "new bucks" get trapped in the financial system propping up the prices of assets and commodities. However, very little makes it all the way down to the average person on the street.

Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: Finalizing The Bear Market Portion Of The Portfolio - Seeking Alpha

"It's not the end of the world, but I can see it from here". For the life of me, I cannot remember where I first heard that. I thought it was Bugs Bunny or perhaps lyrics to a song.

Either way, I have been scrambling to finalize positions to incorporate into the Protected Principal Retirement Strategy portfolio should a steep market correction ensue. I don't think we are quite at that point as of yet, but it never hurts to be ready.

Before I discuss the stocks/closed-end funds [CEFs]/mutual funds that I have decided upon, let's review the current portfolio's holdings and decide on what we will retain, and what we plan to sell. In my article that appeared on SA (here), I provided an update on first quarter portfolio performance. You can refer to this article for clarification of the next few paragraphs.

Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: A Bear Market Alternative, And One For Good Measure - Seeking Alpha

Alas, after identifying what I thought would be the last contributor to the Protected Principal Retirement Strategy's bear market positions, wouldn't you know I found another one.

In recent articles (here) and (here) I discussed a few closed-end funds and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund (LAG), each of which I believe can contribute positively to portfolio returns should we enter a new bear market.

Do You Believe In The 12 Rules Of Goldbuggery? - Seeking Alpha

An investing mantra many equity investors live by is to "buy on the dip." It appears the same is true in the world of physical gold. As investors in gold futures and ETFs such as GLD and IAU seem to be tripping over themselves to get out of gold, demand for tangible gold is skyrocketing. A Reuters article from Friday morning highlights the rush across Asia to buy physical gold. In the United States, the Mint has already sold 153,000 ounces of gold coins in April, more than the combined totals from February and March. In fact, in the midst of the gold price collapse, on April 17, the United States Mint sold 63,000 ounces of gold. That one day total, by itself, eclipsed the 62,000 ounces of gold sold by the Mint in March.

How Low Can Gold Go? - Seeking Alpha

Before I continue let me bypass all the conspiracy theories about gold (to which I do not subscribe) and let me also put aside the controversial issue of if gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are money or not. In today's article I will concentrate on just one thing and that is, what might the price of gold be, based on the cost of production. Also, how low can gold possibly go, assuming maximum downside bearish market pressure.

Why I'm Not Concerned About America's Mountain Of Debt - Seeking Alpha

We've heard it before: "America has too much debt." This has been the common theme since Obama took over in 2009, and the sentiment persisted through the 2012 election. It continues to exist today.

However, people spouting off about debt may not know both sides of the story. The idea about having too much debt could be flawed because a high debt balance isn't always a bad thing.

I was pleased to read a report from Capital Economics titled, "America is Not Drowning in Debt," which debunks many of the hyped myths circulating about America's "crushing" debt balance.