CASSANDRA'S HYPOTHESIS

In Greek mythology, Cassandra was the daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy. Her beauty caused Apollo to grant her the gift of prophecy. However, when she did not return his love, Apollo placed a curse on her so that no one would ever believe her predictions. In any case, Cassandra sees a lot of controversial things happening between now and 2014 and you may want to review her viewpoint down on the lower right of this page. As Cassandra so aptly says...."Forewarned is Forearmed."

This Day in History

Sunday, January 29, 2012

I Know Who You Are and I Saw What You Did - Social Networks and the Death of Privacy - By Lori Andrews - Book Review - NYTimes.com

It may surprise anyone under 16, but even before the advent of social networking we faced threats to our privacy. A hospital accidentally releasing patient records or a shady marketing firm engaging in Stasi-like data collection — such violations were substantial enough and disturbing enough to make the evening news. Today, however, the “death of privacy” is more like death by a thousand cuts: information leaks out slowly and invisibly, and so routinely that we’re hardly shocked when it does. Internet companies, which use the word “sharing” almost as a euphemism for “oops,” like to pretend these lapses are normal, even natural. If Mark Zuckerberg’s private photos are up for grabs (as when a recent glitch exposed his Facebook account), what can the rest of us expect?

Friday, January 27, 2012

5 High Yield Stocks From The S&P 500 With Lowest Debt To Equity Ratio - Seeking Alpha

Many investors own stocks from the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. Both indices include 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75 percent coverage of U.S. equities. 19 companies from the S&P 500 have yields above 5 percent (high yield). At the first view, they give you an attractive income if the payments are sustained. Some major criteria for persistent dividends are the business cyclic, the payout ratio and the debt situation. Remember, a highly leveraged company with big payout ratio hides a huge risk for a dividend cut.

In order to avoid some negative surprises in terms of dividend cuts, I screened the S&P 500 Index by stocks with a dividend yield of more than 5 percent as well as a debt to equity ratio of less than one. The debt ratio shows that the company has more equity than debt and is solid financed. There are only five stocks that fulfilled my mentioned criteria. These are the detailed results sorted by yield:

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Searching for the Bottom in Home Prices - Blogs at Chris Martenson

In my December 2011 look at housing, I examined systemic factors such as employment and demographics that represent ongoing structural impediments to the much-awaited recovery in housing valuations and sales. This time around, we're going to consider policy factors that influence the housing market.

Yesterday while standing in line at our credit union I overheard another customer at a teller’s window request that her $100,000 Certificate of Deposit (CD) be withdrawn and placed in her checking account because, she said, “I’m not earning anything.” The woman was middle-aged and dressed for work in a professional white- collar environment -- a typical member, perhaps, of the vanishing middle class.

Sadly, she is doing exactly what Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve policies are intended to push people into doing: abandoning capital accumulation (savings) in favor of consumption or trying for a higher yield in risk assets such as stocks and real estate.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

THE MESSENGER OF CHANGING TIMES… | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

While fundamentalists scour the news for indications of bullish news, the internals of the stock market continue to deteriorate. Even the action of the stock market is bearish as the market rallies on dull volume but declines on higher volume. Furthermore, rising breadth is narrow on rallies while declining breadth is broad when the market heads down.

5 Undervalued Gold Stocks On A Discounted Cash Flow Basis - Seeking Alpha

Gold. The very word conjures up images of opulence and feelings of comfort and joy. Why is gold such an attractive investment? Because of its short supply. The entire quantity of gold in the Universe can fit into a fairly large field. And the fact that it never tarnishes or depreciates in value: it is solid and inorganic. In this article, I analyze some of my best ideas in the gold mining industry. I provide my fair value estimate based on a discount cash flow analysis, assuming a $1600 per troy ounce gold price and a 10% cost of equity.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Shilling says new global recession is here - Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing - MarketWatch

Unlike many gloom and doomsters, Shilling is a genial sort who likes cracking jokes and keeps bees as a hobby. But when it comes to economics he’s dead serious: He’s been consistently gloomier than the economic fraternity and consistently right over the past few years.

18 S&P 500 Dividend Stocks Undervalued By Graham - Seeking Alpha

Looking for stocks trading at attractive prices? Here are some ideas to get you started on your search.

We ran a screen on the S&P 500 for stocks paying dividends above 1% and sustainable payout ratios below 50%. We then screened these stocks for those that appear undervalued relative to the Graham Number.

This number was created by the "godfather of value investing" Benjamin Graham, and calculates a stock's maximum fair value based off of its EPS and book value per share (BVPS). Stocks trading below their Graham Number may be undervalued.

Graham Number = SQRT(22.5 x TTM EPS x MRQ BVPS)

Monday, January 23, 2012

On the Edge with Gonzalo Lira - Max Keiser

Very interesting Max Keiser interview with Gonzalo Lira.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

10 Foreign Dividend Stocks With A History Of Consistent Payouts - Seeking Alpha

Dividend yield should be one of the most important factors when selecting a stock for investment. Dividend payments come out of a company’s earnings and are usually a strong barometer of a firm’s financial health. Unlike other metrics, cash dividends are not susceptible to accounting or other manipulations. Hence consistent dividend payers and growers are excellent options for investors seeking both growth and income. It is widely known that over the long-term, dividend returns account for a major portion of the total returns of the S&P 500.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

11 High-Dividend Stocks That Can Afford To Double Dividend Payments - Seeking Alpha

High-dividend stocks are very popular among defensive investors. These stocks are considered as viable options especially in inflationary environments. In order to achieve sustainable returns, defensive investors also select companies that are able to consistently pay fat dividends. We are concerned that the Fed's inflationary monetary policy will lead to inflation in the near future, and therefore we recommend investors play defensively by purchasing high-quality dividend stocks.

3 Winning Silver Stocks To Buy, 2 To Avoid - Seeking Alpha

Silver might not be as precious as gold, but it is also in limited supply so demand remains quite good, and so does respect for this metal. Whereas gold is popular for its investment value, silver has industrial use which could make it an investment as strong as gold. Here are some companies to consider for post-holiday exposure to silver miners.

Friday, January 20, 2012

5 High-Yield Investments For Retirees - Seeking Alpha

Considering the importance of high dividend yields these days, I have filtered my five best stock picks with high dividend yields, strong industry positioning and a future outlook that will allow them to keep paying the dividends on a consistent basis. It's the sustainability of the dividend payments that should be given focus when choosing dividend stocks in one's portfolio. Investors should use this analysis as a starting point in their own research.

Nigel Farage - UKIP - President ! Schulz - 17th Jan 2012 - YouTube

Well good morning Mr Schulz, President Schulz. I know it is my job to congratulate you but given that we knew the result two and a half years ago as a result of a stitch-up there does not seem to be much point, after all, no one in Europe, or modern day Europe would dream of having a big powerful job that was decided by a full open process, I am sure Mr Barroso would agree.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Canada: One Of The Few Unthreatened AAA Credit Ratings - Seeking Alpha

The way analysts at Citigroup see things, Canada could be one of the few countries left with a triple-A credit rating over the next few years, with ratings agencies likely not done with their downgrades after taking a wide swipe at Europe last week.

7 Great Diversified CEFs For The Income Investor - Seeking Alpha

Closed end funds (CEFs) are some of the most unique and misunderstood investment vehicles in the markets. Built within these funds are characteristics that make them difficult to understand, yet advantageous enough to be classified as an outstanding assets within an income portfolio. For 2011 investors had to suffer through a tumultuous year with many ups and downs in the market. The volatility of these markets also took their toll on the CEF world. Income investors held tight as the markets swooned and rebounded time and time again. In the end there were a number of great CEFs that not only held their ground, but also made money in the process for those willing to hold them through 2011. Listed below are some the best funds for 2011 that income investors should closely examine to see if they might be right for one’s portfolio as we move into 2012.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Few Cities Have Regained Lost Jobs, Report Finds - NYTimes.com

Less than a tenth of the nation’s metropolitan areas have regained the jobs they lost in the economic downturn, according to a report being released Wednesday by the nation’s mayors as they gather in Washington to express their exasperation that the federal government seems more intent on cutting aid to cities than on sending more.

Defining Value In High-Yield Dividend Stocks - Seeking Alpha

What is the best valuation metric used to identify stocks trading at a discount to intrinsic value? The most popular metric is the price to earnings (P/E) ratio. Others may argue that price to book or price to cash flow is the best valuation metric. The proven answer is the enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) metric. Enterprise value is the price plus debt while EBITDA is the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Recent research has found the EV/EBITDA to be the most effective method to getting better returns.

Monday, January 16, 2012

6 Solid Swiss Stocks For Total Returns - Seeking Alpha

In this article, I discuss a few stocks from Switzerland that are listed on U.S. stock exchanges. I am deeply intrigued by the resilience of the Swiss economy and the use of Swiss Franc as a reserve currency (along with US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen). Recently, in September 2011, the Swiss Central Bank decided to peg the Swiss Franc to the Euro whereby the Swiss National Bank will not allow the Franc to get worth more than €0.83 (which is CHF 1.20 to the Euro). I estimate that this forced weakening of the Swiss Franc will benefit export-oriented Swiss companies boosting their profits in the coming year(s).

Friday, January 13, 2012

2012 Investment Themes by Gary Shilling

As my good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment themes, which is this week’s OTB, “This year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveraging” – which also just happens to be the title of Gary’s latest book. Whether you call it that or call it the End Game, as I have, it shapes up as a profoundly different and challenging era for all of us. Gary identifies 9 causes of slow global growth in the years ahead:

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

7 Dividend Ideas For A Volatile 2012 - Seeking Alpha

The continuing global sovereign debt crisis and the weakening U.S. economy are likely to result in a highly volatile and uncertain equity market in 2012. Investors should focus on large capitalization equities with strong global brands and wide economic moats. Investors should be highly focused on capital preservation in 2012. Due to the significant risk surrounding the global economy, U.S. equity prices are vulnerable to large pullbacks in 2012.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Gold And Gold Equities In 2012 - Seeking Alpha

I was reading a Merrill Lynch report about gold and gold stocks. An interesting view with a lot graphics and tables.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Complete Cheatsheet For What To Buy Ahead Of QE3 | ZeroHedge

Fed and/or ECB intervention is coming: whether it is called LSAP, QE x, Nominal GDP targetting, selling Treasury puts, or what have you. A regime that now exists only by central planning intervention, by definition requires ever more central planning intervention to sustain itself, let alone grow further. Furthermore, the banks not only want QE, they need QE. And since central banks serve other banks, not the people it is only a matter of time. Don't believe us? Read anything written by Bill Gross in the past year. So what to do ahead of QE3? Luckily, SocGen has released a complete cheat sheet of not only the dates of the next steps, but what to buy and what to sell ahead of the announcement. In short - one should buy Mortgage Backed Securities, in order to "simply buy MBS before the Fed" - something Bill Gross knows too well and has been hoarding MBS relentlessly as a result, as reported here. More importantly - one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts."

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Recession Takes Toll in Lorain, Ohio - NYTimes.com

The dark, empty storefronts that clog the heart of this aging industrial city stare blankly at the street, their fading signs mute reminders of better and busier times.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

10 Predictions For 2012 From BlackRock's Bob Doll - Seeking Alpha

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at the world's biggest money manager-- BlackRock ($3.6 trillion in assets), who has produced an annual prediction for over a decade, just published his 10 predictions for 2012:

Friday, January 6, 2012

How Today's 'Deflation' Can Turn Into Tomorrow's Hyperinflation - Seeking Alpha

Since the 2008 Credit Crisis, deflation has been the primary worry of mainstream economists and monetary and fiscal policies that utilize various forms of “money printing” have been implemented throughout the world to try to stop it. Unfortunately, money printing combined with deflation can potentially lead to hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is a little understood and little studied phenomenon. Even inflation itself is only partially understood and traditional university economic programs devote minimal attention to it (just ask someone with an economics degree what courses they took in inflation). Almost no one seems to have made the connection between deflation and hyperinflation, which are intimately related. Hyperinflation in fact could actually be defined as a self-feeding cycle of severe deflation combined with escalating money printing.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Hungary Marches Down Hyperinflation Path; What About the US?

As I watch political events in Hungary, I cannot help but think Hungary is on a path towards hyperinflation. Please consider Der Spiegel report 'Democracy Is Being Trampled On in Hungary' and see if you agree.

What Mitt Might Mean For Stocks - Seeking Alpha

At this point, it appears likely that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination for President (his recent win in Iowa will go a ways towards sealing the deal) and quite possible that he will be elected president of the United States. So what will this self-described "conservative businessman" be able to do for the sputtering American economy, and (more importantly from an investing standpoint) what impact can he have on domestic stocks? To find out, I delved into his jobs plan (compiled with help from star economists Glen Hubbard and Greg Mankiw), paying attention to how the proposed policies will impact equity markets in the U.S. Here is what I found:

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

30 Statistics That Show That The Middle Class Is Dying Right In Front Of Our Eyes As We Enter 2012

Once upon a time, the United States had the largest and most vibrant middle class that the world has ever seen. Unfortunately, that is rapidly changing. The statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the U.S. middle class is dying right in front of our eyes as we enter 2012. The decline of the middle class is not something that has happened all of a sudden. Rather, there has been a relentless grinding down of the middle class over the last several decades. Millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas, the rate of inflation has far outpaced the rate that our wages have grown, and overwhelming debt has choked the financial life out of millions of American families.

Gonzalo Lira: A Run On The Global Banking System—How Close Are We?

My own sense is, this is the first tremor of the earthquake that’s coming to the global financial system. And how the central banks and financial regulators treated the “Systemically Important Financial Institutions” that had exposure to MF Global—to the detriment of the ordinary, blameless customer who got royally ripped off in its bankruptcy—is both the template of how the next financial crisis will be handled, and an accelerator that will make the next crisis happen that much sooner.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

5 High Yield Dividend Picks From A Famed Contrarian - Seeking Alpha

Hedge fund manager David Dreman has spent his long career finding hidden gems in beaten up stocks. The contrarian investor looks for stocks that are in the bottom 20% of the market. He analyzes them based on value, with his favorite metrics being earnings yield, dividend yield and forward P/E., in order to find stocks that have been unfairly punished by the market.

The results have been impressive. Since its inception in 2003, his fund has more than doubled the S&P500 (6.3% vs 2.8% annualized). For those of you with nerves of steel, here are five dividend picks from David Dreman:

4 Easy Ways to Play ‘The Great Chinese Migration’

Today we’re witnessing one of the greatest human migrations in the history of the world, and not many people in the West even know about it. It’s the tidal wave of poor Chinese peasants moving from the interior of the country to the large, affluent coastal cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen.

In 2000, just 36% of China’s 1.3 billion people lived in cities. But in the past decade, that number has exploded. Today, roughly half of the population — 650 million people — lives in the urban centers. And there’s no sign of that trend slowing down.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Five Businesses That Did Not Survive 2011 - NYTimes.com

It has been another tough year for many small businesses. One in four, according to the National Federation of Independent Business, believes the biggest problem is weak sales. No matter what other challenges they face, said William Dunkelberg, the federation’s chief economist, “the key to everything is cash coming in the front door.”

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Buy.....Buy.......Bankrupt!!!!!

The lack of foresight and insight by the pros that run Wall Street is just stunning. And it’s not only happening to individual stocks, this type of mentality permeates the stock market. Of course, that bias helps keep the stock market up in the face of big problems, but long term, it also means that when the mentality changes, it will change fast. Does that mean it will change this year? Unlikely. That strong bias plus some help from the Fed should be enough to keep the market from having huge problems this year. In fact, the right tonic of stock market bias and printed money could push this market way past a 10% increase. But, it won’t last. Will it last to the end of the year? Possibly. There’s lots of psychology driving this market. So, the tradition keepers on Wall Street could be right. But, as in the past, and even more in the future, it will go back down and when it does, it could go quite quickly. If you’re not sure, just remember one of the increasingly popular traditions on Wall Street: BUY, BUY, BANKRUPT!

Saturday, December 31, 2011

3 Arguments For An Inevitable Economic Collapse - Seeking Alpha

An informal survey a year ago of Seeking Alpha writers seems to indicate that not 1 in 500 writers thought a 1929 type economic collapse to be likely in our near future. Even today, it appears not 1 in 30 thinks this is likely. Yet there are powerful arguments on why this is probable. Three prominent writers have published books that make these arguments, and I believe any reader of Seeking Alpha would greatly benefit from reading these books. A brief synopsis below of the contents provides you a feel for the validity of these books. Links point to the Amazon readers’ reviews of these three books, revealing what many other people think about them.

The Ideal Dividend Portfolio In 3 Investments - Seeking Alpha

Investors relying on dividend income need to count on the reliability of consistent payments in a timely fashion. They want to stay relatively diversified, sheltered from the volatile flows of the market’s day-to-day. Last of all, they also want to maximize their profits, thereby needing an above-average yield.

Negating the share price appreciation due to its inconsistency, controlling the yield return is the most practical aspect of choosing an income portfolio in which to invest. The typical dividend fund, whether it be an ETF or a mutual fund, offers investors somewhere between 2%-4%. As is the case with most funds, the typical fund has a management fee of about 0.5%-1%, which essentially is taken off the yield on an annual basis.

10 Dividend Stocks Retirees Should Buy In 2012 - Seeking Alpha

Our central belief is that in a low interest-rate world, retirees are experiencing dwindling incomes from their risk-free assets (e.g. government bonds and cash equivalents). With ultra easy monetary policy the Federal Reserve will continue to pick the pockets of savers by keeping rates low with inflation (as measured by the CPI) at above 3%. We do not foresee interest rates at the short end of the curve rising any time soon. The debt burdens of sovereign governments as well as consumers are simply too high.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Ten Predictions for Next Year — Rick's Picks

As promised, here are my predictions for 2012. So many things could go horribly wrong that it’s probably best that we simply try to live our lives to the fullest and not worry too much about the headlines. Before I start listing away then, let me wish you all a happy New Year. Whatever the news brings in 2012, may you and yours enjoy good health, happiness and inner peace.

Are Storm Clouds Gathering For These 7 High-Yielding Dividend Stocks? - Seeking Alpha

Everyone wants to earn more. For investors in dividend growth stocks, the quick way to earn more is to select dividend stocks with higher yields. Swap those 2-4% yields in for stocks earning 7-10%, or more. Before making the trade, you should ask yourself the following two questions:

1. Why is the yield higher?

and

2. Are these higher yields sustainable?

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Sino-Forest's fall heard - Winnipeg Free Press

Carson Block's investigation into alleged fraud at Sino-Forest, one of Canada's most valuable forestry companies, began with a simple tip. Little did he know it would ignite a powder keg that sent ripples of shock through the investing landscape and sparked a newfound skepticism about companies that list their shares in Canada but operate in faraway emerging economies. While Canadian companies eye lucrative Chinese markets to export everything from coal and potash to lumber, wheat and oil and gas, major Chinese players have sunk billions of dollars into Canadian resources in the last year. Yet Block's research has tarnished the reputation of some Chinese firms and raised a red flag for Canadian investors.

8 High Dividend Stock Picks From Billionaire Ray Dalio - Seeking Alpha

Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest and best-performing hedge funds today. Back in 1975, when the fund was founded by Ray Dalio, its office was just a two-bedroom apartment. Now it manages more than $100 billion in global investments and has nearly 1200 employees researching the market and trading in various markets and geographies. Last year, Bridgewater returned 44.8%. It generated a return of 25.3% through the end of August this year despite the financial turmoil in the markets.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

ETF Showdown: Which MLP Is Master Of The Universe? | Etfs | Minyanville.com

In case you didn't already know, master limited partnerships (or MLPs) have been simply en fuego as an asset class in recent years. And what's not to like? Stellar performance, robust yields, and tax advantages make it impossible to ignore MLPs.

7 High-Yield Stocks For A Resource-Scarce World - Seeking Alpha

If one of my resource investments manages to maintain or increase reserves over time I'd be ecstatic, and some will. However, I don't want to buy a resource company with a dependence on infinite reserves growth and an unknown return of capital.

The following screen identifies resource stocks with the potential to pay high dividends to investors for a long time. The first step identifies resource stocks with a market capitalization over $10 billion, dividend yield over 4% and p/e ratio under 15. Here is a selection of 7 stocks that I came up with:

Monday, December 26, 2011

7 Dividend Champs With Yields As High As 18%, Part III - Seeking Alpha

This is part III of the dividend champ series. In part II we looked at seven stocks with yield as high as 23%. Extreme volatility is propelling more and more investors into dividend yielding investments in contrast to speculative investments.

Our favourite play on the list is VGR; it has increased its dividends for 12 years in a row, has an earnings growth rate of 60.9%, a decent five-year dividend growth rate of 5.00%, a total return for the past three years and five years of 93% and 86% respectively, and it has been paying dividends since 1990.

7 Dividend Champs With Yields As High As 23%, Part II - Seeking Alpha

This is part II of the dividend champ series. In part I we looked at seven stocks with yield as high as 15%. Extreme volatility is propelling more and more investors into dividend yielding investments in contrast to speculative investments. In coming up with this list we screened for the following;

7 Dividend Champs With Yields As High As 18%, Part III - Seeking Alpha

This is part III of the dividend champ series. In part II we looked at seven stocks with yield as high as 23%. Extreme volatility is propelling more and more investors into dividend yielding investments in contrast to speculative investments.

Our favourite play on the list is VGR; it has increased its dividends for 12 years in a row, has an earnings growth rate of 60.9%, a decent five-year dividend growth rate of 5.00%, a total return for the past three years and five years of 93% and 86% respectively, and it has been paying dividends since 1990.

5 Warren Buffett Quotes To Make You A Better Long-Term Investor - Seeking Alpha

Warren Buffett, the CEO and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), has a reputation for taking a long-term view of the market when other investors get distracted by the day-to-day fluctuations and sometimes make short-sighted situations that are often at odds with their long-term interests.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Optimizing Value In The Pursuit Of Dividend Yield Income: REITs, MLPs And BDCs - Seeking Alpha

Double taxation is the main problem for investors reliant on dividend-paying companies. For most companies, the income is taxed on the corporate level first, and then passed down to the individual where it’s also taxed again on an individual level. Thereby, companies that typically pass value to their investors in the form of dividend payouts tend to lose a compounding amount of value over every dividend paid. This can be disadvantageous for investors as an industry peer (all things considered equal) that doesn’t pay out dividends should in theory outperform the company that does.

REITs, BDCs, and MLPs are therefore the ideal entities under the right circumstances by which income streams can be obtained. Through bypassing the corporate tax level and enforcing a high payout requirement, income investors focused on yield can extract an optimal amount of value from their investment.

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